095
AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUL 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 03-20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 03-10N BETWEEN 40-49W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SURINAME
AND GUYANA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N35W. THE
ITCZ THEN RUNS FROM 05N35W TO 06.5N44W WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES AT 07N46W AND CONTINUES TO
06N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE, NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 04-13N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND 32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM 01-05N
BETWEEN 35-40W, WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45-54W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF 12N AND W OF 80W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
N OF 25N AND E OF 86W. IN THE SW GULF, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E-SE TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN, WEST
OF 90W. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 2-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE
GULF, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF, AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INTO THE NW GULF BY WED. IN THE
MEANTIME, ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE TUE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE
1011 MB COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 15N, AND
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SW
CARIBBEAN ARE 7-10 FT AND 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE AREA ALONG
29N TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC AND INTO
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BASIN
WED THROUGH FRI. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN WED THROUGH FRI. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW PORTIONS. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE, MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN ELONGATED 1014 MB LOW CENTER WAS ANALYZED NEAR 29.5N78W. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 30N
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. TO THE EAST OF 76W, SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE WATERS
NORTH OF 23N TO 60W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28.5N40W, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 24N
AND BETWEEN 25W AND 65W. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS SEAS OF 6-9 FT
ARE NOTED EAST OF 25W FROM 17N TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF 75W TODAY. ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EXTENDING TO OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA BY LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO FLORIDA TUE THROUGH
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WATERS WEST OF 75W THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE NW ZONES TUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
ADAMS
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