154
AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE JUL 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0505 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF (AL93):
RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER, THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 61W, EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES, SOUTH OF 20N AND MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL IN NE SOUTH AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N25W AND TO
05N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO 07N48W AND THEN FROM
07N51W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM ON BOTH SIDES BETWEEN 25W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF EASTERN FLORIDA (AL93). MARINERS IN THE AREA
CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH
OF LOUISIANA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SE TEXAS TO NE YUCATAN. IN THE REST OF
THE BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE N-CENTRAL
GULF TONIGHT, AND EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS CONTINUE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW AND INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH THU.
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA TUE
AND TUE NIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
BY EARLY WED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE AND SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS, WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS NOTED IN A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. THESE WINDS ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING NEAR 10 FT OFF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE AREA ALONG 29N
AND E OF 75W INTO TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW PORTIONS. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI,
MAINLY PRODUCING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AL93) CENTERED OFF CAPE CANAVERAL
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF 75W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH W-NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 28N
AND BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WEST OF 60W. MAINLY
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 26N
AND BETWEEN 25W AND 60W. LASTLY, IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL CONTINUE
E OF 75W TONIGHT INTO TUE. ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TO OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA TUE THROUGH
TUE NIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA BY EARLY WED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH- CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO FLORIDA TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WATERS WEST
OF 75W THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE NW ZONES TUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
DELGADO
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