251
AXNT20 KNHC 151817
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUL 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF (AL93):
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE 1014 MB LOW HAS CAME ONSHORE
NEAR FLAGLER BEACH, FLORIDA. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND THEN REACH THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF BY WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 53W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
FOUND NEAR THIS WAVE. ,
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 64W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN NEAR GRENADA, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR NOUAKCHOTT, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
10N27W AND A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 06N36W TO 06N40W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD FROM 06N40W TO NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 08N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA, AND NEAR
THE LOW AND ITCZ FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES WESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR NEW ORLEANS. ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTH- CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1019 MB HIGH
DOMINATES THE REST OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2
FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE TO S WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW AND
SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THU. A WEAK 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND
THEN REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WED. IT WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG
29N IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THESE WINDS ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING NEAR 9
FT OFF NW COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SAHARAN AIR
ACCOMPANIES A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHERE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N AND E OF 75W WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WED THROUGH SAT AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW PORTIONS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN THROUGH FRI, MAINLY PRODUCING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AL93) CENTERED OFF CAPE CANAVERAL
NEAR 29N79.5W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 77W AND ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF 29N. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS WITHIN
90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE. TO THE
EAST, A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N57W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
W-SW TO 75W. FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE
ATLANTIC AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N39W TO 29N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 50W ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT WEST OF 60W. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 26N AND BETWEEN 25W AND
60W. LASTLY, IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 20N AND
EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE RIDGE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 75W THIS MORNING, WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OF 1014 MB IS JUST OFFSHORE TITUSVILLE, FLORIDA. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND
THEN REACH THE NE GULF BY WED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NE AND
NORTH- CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND ACROSS FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF 76W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND THROUGH THE NW ZONES TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU.
CHAN
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