105
AXNT20 KNHC 160539
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUL 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF (AL93): SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF ITS
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD, AND
COULD EMERGE OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN TO NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF, REACHING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY
THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES FULLY INLAND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THROUGH TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W, SOUTH OF 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 17N AND EAST OF 22W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THIS
WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N30W AND
THEN TO 05N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N46W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF 10N AND BETWEEN 38W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
INVEST 93L OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE SE GULF WATERS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA, SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF
EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, AND
WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE THU. A WEAK 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE, INVEST AL93, IS INLAND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA NEAR
30N82.5W, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD, AND COULD EMERGE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF,
POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CUBA AND JAMAICA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
FORCES FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-10 FT IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WED THROUGH SAT MORNING
AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD TO NEAR 70W. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRACT IN AERIAL COVERAGE LATE SAT THROUGH
SUN. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU
THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL NW
PORTIONS. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH FRI, MAINLY PRODUCING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N33W TO 26N45W, FOLLOWED BY A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TO 26N56W. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
THE REST OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93L
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WEST OF 75W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT ON RECENT SATELLITE- DERIVED
WIND DATA SOUTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND SOUTH OF 20N. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N62.5W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO OFFSHORE THE
GEORGIA COAST. 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE, INVEST AL93, IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL GULF WED, POSSIBLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND ACROSS
FLORIDA WED THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE NW ZONES THROUGH EARLY THU,
THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
DELGADO
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