135
AXNT20 KNHC 182216
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUL 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31W FROM 05N TO 17N,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 29W-38W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 83W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF HONDURAS,
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 09N19W TO
08N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N37W TO 07N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
16W-24W, AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 44W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF, PROMOTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SEAS 1-4 FT OVER THE GULF, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NNE WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-95W.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY
AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE
REGION TO A 1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE NE
TO E TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, THE TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 3-7 FT,
EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N WHERE TRADES ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT FRESH E WINDS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM A 1029 MB
AZORES HIGH NEAR 35N37W TO A 1024 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 29N70W TO
30N81W ALONG COASTAL FLORIDA. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
RIDGE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE FRESH
TO STRONG E TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA AND FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE NW COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 3-7 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT TO 9 FT
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N, INCLUDING APPROACHES
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page