986
AXNT20 KNHC 190621
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JUL 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 32W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05 TO 09N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS, NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA TO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER COSTA
RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA, AND NEARBY CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
WEST SAHARA AND MAURITANIA, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO 08N37W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 08N37W TO NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND
06N57W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN THE SENEGAL-GUINEA COAST AND 28W, AND UP TO 115 NM
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF
THE TEXAS- MEXICO BORDER IS DOMINATING THE NORTHERN GULF WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND FLORIDA STRAITS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND
SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHERN HAITI. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO A 1007 MB COLOMBIA
LOW IS CREATING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NE TO E TRADES AND 9 TO 12 FT
SEAS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
WITH SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN,
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS
WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT FRESH E WINDS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT
THE BEGINNING FOR CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
THE 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 28N75W IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO ESE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT
DOMINATE FROM 09N TO 31N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LESSER
ANTILLES. FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 22N,
INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
CHAN
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