045
AXNT20 KNHC 201758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUL 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 26W FROM
05-17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 08-12N BETWEEN
27-31N, WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
FROM 06-14N BETWEEN 22-27W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W FROM 05N
TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05-12N BETWEEN 39-47W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL
BORDER OF MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N28W,
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N36W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N49W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS NEAR WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE W FL COAST IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NE GULF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
1021 MB HIGH OVER THE FAR NE GULF. MODERATE OR WEAKER E WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL INTO THE WEEK AS
A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NE GULF BY THU AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING FROM E TO W
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL GULF WATERS
STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, AS WELL AS IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN OFF THE NE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL BASIN, THE LEE OF CUBA, AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TUE
THROUGH WED, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N67W TO 22N70W,
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A
REGION FROM 21-28N BETWEEN 65-72W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES OR THE MONSOON TROUGH.
A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 55W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF
5-7 FT PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AREAS W OF 55W ARE SEEING
GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
STALL, WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG IT.
ADAMS
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