812
AXNT20 KNHC 202222
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUL 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 29W FROM
05-17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 47W FROM 06N
TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF
1012 MB HAS FORMED WHERE THIS WAVE INTERSECTS THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 09N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 48W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL
BORDER OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W AND RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
11N24W, THEN CONTINUES W TO 11N36W AND SW TO 07N49W. CONVECTION
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST THAT HAD BEEN INDUCING
SOME CONVECTION IN THE NE GULF HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND, LEAVING
THE BASIN VOID OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, THE ONLY FEATURE IS A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THAT IS DOMINATING WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. THIS
IS TRANSLATING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS
OF LESS THAN 3 FT. THE EXCEPT IS TO THE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAY OF CAMPECHE TROUGH, WHERE SOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL INTO THE WEEK AS
A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING
FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
BUT SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE VENEZUELAN COAST DUE TO CONVERGING TRADEWINDS.
OTHERWISE, THE ONLY CONVECTION IS DUE THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, DESCRIBED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. STRONG NE TO E TRADES AND SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
NORTH-CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SW BASIN HAVING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WELL
DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH WED, LIKELY REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
WED MORNING, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. OTHERWISE,
CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
34N42W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 55W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO
STRONG BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS OF
5-7 FT PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FOR WATERS W OF 55W, TO
THE S OF 22N, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT DOMINATE. TO THE N, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, STARTING
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
STALL, WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG IT.
KONARIK
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