822
AXNT20 KNHC 210614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUL 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 29W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 23W AND 35W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 46W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
THROUGH A BROAD 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N46W, AND MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL
BORDER OF WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA, THEN MEANDERS
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 12N30W TO NORTHEAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT
9N50W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES/BROAD LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF
SENEGAL, GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST FLORIDA COAST IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF NAPLES. OTHERWISE, A MODEST 1019
MB HIGH AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE PRESENT
AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL INTO THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEFORE POSSIBLY
MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE OF CUBA, AND NEAR SOUTHERN
HAITI. THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 26N CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO ESE
WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL
AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE LEE OF CUBA AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOSTLY GENTLE NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO
4 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING
TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH WED, LIKELY REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
WED MORNING, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WAVE
IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THESE
WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY
TO PRECEDE THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N69W IS
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W
AND 74W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N50W TO BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE ENE TO SE TO S-SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST, AND
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. FARTHER SOUTH FROM 10N TO
25N/27N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO S-SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF
35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED MENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
INTO TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL, WITH LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG IT.
CHAN
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