895
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JUL 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 30W FROM 05N
TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N
TO 12N AND WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 47W FROM 03N
TO 17N. THIS WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS OBSERVED
ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB
(INVEST AL94) IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N47W. A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT NEAR 09N51W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD,
HOWEVER, BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL
BORDER OF WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA, THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 12N30W AND TO NORTHEAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT
9N50W. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 37W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
40W AND 52W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEAR
25N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N TO 26.5N. OTHERWISE, A MODEST 1019 MB
HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N86W. IT IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE OVER THE NE AND EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WED AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA LOW IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS FROM 15N TO 18N WEST OF 80W. SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 7 TO 10 FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W, 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE BASIN AND 3 TO
5 FT ELSEWHERE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N WEST 80W. THE NEARBY
EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING
TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF CUBA TO NEAR 19N AND BETWEEN 78W AND 84W,
AND OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES EAST TO JUST OFFSHORE WESTERN HAITI.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESENT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
A WELL- DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST AL94, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH WED, LIKELY REACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY WED MORNING, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING
ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTER THAT IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N42W TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTING GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TO NEAR 25N, AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
SOUTH 25N TO NEAR 10N EAST OF 61W, AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN
61W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE RIDGE, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. SEAS ARE 2
TO 4 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N69W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NOTED TO
ITS SW THROUGH NW FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W, AND ALSO TO
THE SE OF THE LOW FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W.
AN AREA OF INCREASING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS NOTED NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AGAIN JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO TUE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL, WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING ALONG IT.
AGUIRRE
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