899
AXNT20 KNHC 212239
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JUL 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 33W FROM
05-17N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09-15N BETWEEN 25-33W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 51W FROM
03-16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08-16N BETWEEN 44-53W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE SENEGAL-
MAURITANIA BORDER AT 16N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N34W, THEN W TO
10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 07-15N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND 24W.
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 33-54W, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY
S OF 12N AND W OF 80W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FL PENINSULA ARE
RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FAR NE GULF. CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST TOWARD
VERACRUZ. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE LOUISIANA DOMINATES
THE BASIN, RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND
SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT. THE EXCEPT IS TO THE E OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TROUGH JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PRODUCING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WED AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NE GULF BY THU, AND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PART OF THE BASIN ON FRI AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE COLOMBIA LOW IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF THE BASIN, BUT WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER, AND SEAS THERE ARE 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE, INVEST AL94, IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH WED,
REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WED MORNING, AND MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO ON THU MORNING. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO
BEING ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN
PORTION.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 150 NM N OF THE
NW BAHAMAS THAT IS MOVING S ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE ONLY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
OR TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE. THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ARE DOMINATED BY THE AZORES HIGH,
BRINGING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT FOR
WATERS N OF 23N. FOR WATERS W OF 70W, SEAS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 3
FT. TO THE S OF 23N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AGAIN
JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NE WATERS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
KONARIK
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