094
AXNT20 KNHC 221037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE JUL 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 19N
FROM 05N TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND 22W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 33W FROM
05N TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED TO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 10N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52W FROM 03N
TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AROUND THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N25W, THEN WESTWARD TO 13N35W AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N41W AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 09N41W. ASIDE
FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 24N AND
28W AND ALSO BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FL PENINSULA ARE
RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN GULF. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N88W
DOMINATES THE BASIN, RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS TO THE EAST
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS
ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN ON FRI AS A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS
STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE COLOMBIA LOW PRESSURE
IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TOO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT REMAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE BASIN, BUT WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH WED, REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WED
MORNING, AND MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON THU MORNING. THIS
WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF
12N AND WEST OF 78W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W, THE ONLY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE
SECTIONS ABOVE. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ARE DOMINATED
BY THE AZORES HIGH, BRINGING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FT FOR WATERS N OF 20N. TO THE SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FARTHER WEST, WEST OF 20W AND SOUTH OF 31N, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG WITH SEAS
OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THROUGH WED PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO 22N,
INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS MAY
REACH 30 KT ON WED AND THU NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NE WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK- WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
AGUIRRE
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