716
AXNT20 KNHC 221759
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUL 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 20W
FROM 04-17N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08-13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
23W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 35W FROM
04-17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 07-12N BETWEEN 32-38W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52W FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL BORDER OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA TO ABOUT 17N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 06-15N BETWEEN 52W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N20W, THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
11N28W AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N43W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS
FROM 07N43W TO 07N46W TO 10N52W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09-12N BETWEEN 23-28W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SEEN FROM 04-09N
BETWEEN 40-51W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF
13N AND W OF 78W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FL PENINSULA ARE
RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NE GULF. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N88W
DOMINATES THE BASIN, RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED NIGHT MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY
AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS THE NE GULF ON
THU AND THU NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN
ON FRI AS A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS STARTING TODAY.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE COLOMBIA LOW PRESSURE IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE BASIN,
BUT WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH LOWER
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY ALONG 52W, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH WED, REACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY WED MORNING, AND MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
THU MORNING. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THESE WATERS IN ADDITION TO BEING
ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES NEAR ITS NORTHERN PORTION.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US
ARE BOTH SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 28N AND W OF 75W, WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IN THE BASIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES, THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND THE
ITCZ.
MUCH OF THE BASIN ELSEWHERE IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING STEMMING FROM
THE 1028 MB AZORES HIGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OCCURRING FROM 12-20N BETWEEN 45-60W,
ALONG WITH 6-8 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N AND E OF 20W, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MUCH OF
THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6
FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THROUGH WED PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO 22N,
INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS MAY
REACH 30 KT LATE ON WED AND THU NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NE WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
ADAMS
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