154
AXNT20 KNHC 312330
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI AUG 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED, AND IS LOCATED ALONG
49W SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE
WAVE AXIS.
A WEAK CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
NORTH END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N31W. THE
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N31W TO 07N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 07-10N EAST OF
24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AS A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS
THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-2 FT, AS
OBSERVED BY RECENT BUOY DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND JUST INLAND
THE NE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AS WELL
AS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE OFF THE COASTS OF JAMAICA AND HAITI.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SAT, WITH WINDS PULSING TO STRONG OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A
TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER ON SAT, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR 26N73W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING FROM 27N67W TO NEAR 22N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THIS TROUGH, FROM 25N
TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, RIDGING STEMMING FROM THE 1032 MB AZORES HIGH PREVAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 6-8 FT SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN AN AREA
FROM 13-25N BETWEEN 35-55W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
AREAS N OF 18N AND E OF 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS
SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE REGION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MAY BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN TO THE WATERS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ADAMS
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