474
AXNT20 KNHC 022306
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC, FROM 16.5N TO 26N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 26N64W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 77W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, EXCEPT FOR
INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 86W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS, NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER LAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND COASTAL HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16W, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11.5N27.5W TO 06N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 06N45W TO 08N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 15N
BETWEEN 30W AND WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WEST OF 40W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE EASTERN END OF
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 82.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT SNAKES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR
30.5N89W, THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TO SE
TEXAS JUST WEST OF GALVESTON. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT IS LEADING TO CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOTTING THE WATERS NORTH OF 23N TO THE FRONT BETWEEN
88W AND 95W. A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT FOR MOST OF THE GULF,
WITH STRONG WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUE, GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT
NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, INCLUDING THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO,
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN, NORTH OF 16.5N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA.
STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND WESTERN JAMAICA, HOWEVER, SKIES ARE GENERALLY FAIR
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL
WAVES, REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1020 MB ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF 16N, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT WITHIN THE
STRONGEST WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THERE, WHILE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG 27N-28N AND THE COLOMBIA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, OCCASIONALLY PULSING
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN BY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO TO 26N. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TROPICAL
WAVE, REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 66W, WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A COMPLEX AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA AND AZORES HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND EXTEND WEAKLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE,
EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. PEAK SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND THERE. ELSEWHERE, SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS OF 6 FT AND LESS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE AZORES HIGH TO 25N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, PROMOTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PUERTO
RICO, WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT, REACHING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, THEN THE SE BAHAMAS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY ALONG A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW COULD OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER THAT
TIME, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
STRIPLING
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