262
AXNT20 KNHC 030913
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
UPDATED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC INVEST AREA AL95:
A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 180 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BECOME A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TODAY OR ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH, AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
7 DAYS. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GTWO.PHP?BASIN=ATLC&FDAYS=7
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 68W FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA, AND MOVING WEST
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA, THE MONA PASSAGE AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM NEAR JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER INTO THE EAST PACIFIC
OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ABSORBED INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 11N30W TO
08N40W. AN ITCZ CURVES WESTWARD FROM 08N40W THROUGH 06N50W TO
NORTH OF GUYANA AT 09N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING UP TO 60 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W, AND UP TO 50 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH TOGETHER ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORHT-CENTRAL NATION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SPINE OF
FLORIDA IS CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF NAPLES. OTHERWISE,
A 1019 MB HIGH AT THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF IS DOMINATING THE MUCH OF
THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS, EXCEPT
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY LATER
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST TUE, GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADES ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE, REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE
WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE
NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
BASIN, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE COLOMBIA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, OCCASIONALLY PULSING
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN GENTLE AND MODERATE TUE
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
MON NIGHT INTO WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A LARGE DOME OF 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N55W IS DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. TO THE WEST, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT EXIST.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN
WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
25N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS LA MONA PASSAGE, WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND
REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SUN. IT WILL PASS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES SOUTH OF 25N DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE, A LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA COULD ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES EAST- NORTHEASTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AFTER MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page