797
AXNT20 KNHC 031105
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
UPDATED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC INVEST (AL95): A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 180 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM TODAY OR ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT, AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 7 DAYS. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GTWO.PHP?BASIN=ATLC&FDAYS=7
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 69W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD INTO NW VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 79W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER INTO THE EAST
PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER
OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 11N30W TO
08N40W. THE ITCZ CURVES WESTWARD FROM 08N40W THROUGH 07N49W TO
NORTH OF GUYANA AT 09N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA OFFSHORE WATERS.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STALLED FRONT FROM SE TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING TRIGGERED BY A SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUE,
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF SE
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING
FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE
DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BASIN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E BASIN AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE MODERATE
BASIN-WIDE, EXCEPT SLIGHT OVER THE NW BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON CONVECTION AND OTHER
DETAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
AT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS TUE MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL REACH MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON NIGHT INTO WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SE CONUS,
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NE FLORIDA
OFFSHORES. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W TO
21N70W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 29N, BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO
23N47W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN
45W AND 53W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGHS, WHICH ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS MAINLY N OF 25N. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING, REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY, AND THE SE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND HIGH
PRESSURE E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S
OF 25N DURING THIS PERIOD.
RAMOS
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