254
AXNT20 KNHC 031724
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 70W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD INTO NW VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT
10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NEAR 80W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC
OCEAN, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W TO 09N37W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N59W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 30N87W, WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 29N95W. TO THE S OF
THE FRONT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 28N89W TO 25N92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS NEAR THESE FEATURES AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 24N94W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUE,
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
SE LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, THE WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT, AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BASIN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E BASIN AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE MODERATE
BASIN-WIDE, EXCEPT SLIGHT OVER THE NW BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
AT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS TUE MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL REACH MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON NIGHT INTO WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SE CONUS, GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 24N69W AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO
30N, BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. TO THE E, ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 24N50W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGHS,
WHICH ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS MAINLY N OF 25N. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING, REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TODAY, AND THE SE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND HIGH
PRESSURE E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S
OF 25N DURING THIS PERIOD.
ERA
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