067
AXNT20 KNHC 040614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 72W FROM HAITI
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA BORDER. IT IS MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A WESTERN-CARIBBON TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP AT THE SOUTHWESTERN
BASIN, AND NEAR HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
NOUAKCHOTT, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 11N30W TO 08N37W.
AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N37W ACROSS 07N46W TO NORTH OF
SURINAME AT 09N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 25W AND 37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW AT THE
FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF, IS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR NEW ORLEANS. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NNE
TO NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH TUE WHILE
DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N57W SUSTAINS A TRADE-WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7
TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
ENE TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED AT
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1022 MB HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN BASIN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DEXTER IS ABOUT 260 NM WNW OF BERMUDA
NEAR 34N69W, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT AND THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. FARTHER SOUTH, A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N57W WILL SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SSE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. TO THE
SOUTH FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/LESSER
ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO ESE WINDS
AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED 1022 MB HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRI, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
HAITI, WILL REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SUPPORTED BY MOIST AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EAST WATERS, PARTICULARLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W, THROUGH
AT LEAST MON. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CHAN
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