946
AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 19W, MOVING
WEST AT 5-10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 74W
FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA, MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN-CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 86W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S
OF 15N AND W OF 80W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N41W
TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES MAINLY W OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONNECTS THIS LOW TO A FAMILY OF LOWS N OF THE AREA ACROSS SE
CONUS. S OF THE LOW, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N86W TO
24N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH TUE WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS
ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TUE
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND
DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N AND E OF 80W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLOMBIA LOW
IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO
E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL BASIN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN, AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. AFTERWARD, WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REACH MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGHS, WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY MOIST AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL PERSIST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
ERA
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