966
AXNT20 KNHC 042310
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG
19N-20N FROM 08N TO 20N, MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED
ALONG 75W FROM SW HAITI SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA, MOVING WEST AT 5-10
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT
THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 87W,
MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED S OF 18N AND W OF 78W AND EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16.5W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08.5N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM
08.5N44W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 31N ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST INTO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED
NEAR 30N86W, THEN CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. S OF THE LOW, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEAR THE LOW TO
23N93W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH NEAR
25N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH
AND THE FRONT, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 93W. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS TO 3 FT SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR
APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE
NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS
ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TUE
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND
DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING
WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N AND W OF
79W. STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA, WESTERN JAMAICA, AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
AZORES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 70W AND IS VERY WEAK BETWEEN 70W AND
FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIA LOW IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO ENE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE
LIKELY 10 FT OFFSHORE OF NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN, AND WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE W OF 60W AND NORTH OF
BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AZORES HIGH, WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N67W AND THEN WEAKLY WESTWARD TO FLORIDA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 53W TO 55W, AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO 26N 72W INTERRUPTS THE RIDGE AXIS, AND ARE THE FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE SECOND TROUGH, FROM 23N TO 26N,
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS
YIELDING MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 6 FT
OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
STRIPLING
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