061
AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 21W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.
A FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE
EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE HONDUREAS-NICARAGUA
COASTAL BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITANIA COAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOUAKCHOTT, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 13N25W
TO 07N59W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 07N59W ACROSS 09N45W
TO NORTH OF SURINAME AT 09N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 180 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1012 MB LOW
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BEYOND NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO
80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS FEATURE. A MODEST 1016
MB HIGH AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING GENTLE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WATERS NEAR YUCATAN WHERE MODERATE
ENE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS
ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TUE
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND
DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CUBA AND JAMAICA. REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE
NOTED AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS
WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PERSIST NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO ESE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING
SIMILAR WEATHER EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. REFER
TO THE MONSOON/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL
WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH 31N40W TO A 1019 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THESE FEATURES ARE PROLONGING GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO S-SE
WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 55W AND THE
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. TO THE EAST, MOSTLY MODERATE ENE
TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT EXIST NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 35W
AND 55W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
S-SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
CHAN
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