261
AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 08N TO
20N WITH AXIS 21W, MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 13N25W TO 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
WESTWARD FROM 09N37W ACROSS 08N45W TO 09N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W, AND FROM
04N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 54W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1013 MB LOW
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1015 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA TO
SE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE
LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1015 MB LOW SW TO THE
NE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, AND SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGING AND A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT
MODERATE OR WEAKER SE WINDS OVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH WED WHILE
DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG WITH
7-8 FT SEAS. THE SAME PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS
OVER THE E BASIN HAVE DIMINISHED TO MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND YUCATAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO GEORGIA AND
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS E
OF 30W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH
THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH WED. THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF
HISPANIOLA.
RAMOS
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