046
AXNT20 KNHC 051650
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 23W AND
FROM 08N-20N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W, THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 09N44W
TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES AND W OF 26W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 31N86W TO 30N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SE LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N89W TO 26N96W,
AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF.
SURFACE RIDGING AND A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT MODERATE
OR WEAKER SE WINDS OVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH WED WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS
ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND
DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS. THE SAME PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS
OVER THE E BASIN HAVE DIMINISHED TO MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND YUCATAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS E OF 30W AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 30W
AND 65W. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION,
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
ERA
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