209
AXNT20 KNHC 052307
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 23W AND
FROM 07N-20N, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 KT ACROSS THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS ALONG 93W AND
SOUTH OF 21N TO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
AT 18N16W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS AND CONTINUING TO 08.5N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08.5N46W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07.5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
28W, AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 28W AND 44W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N-09.5N BETWEEN 46W-58W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1019 MB LOW
NEAR 31N85W TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR GALVESTON, TEXAS AT
29.5N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N88W TO 27N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT MODERATE OR WEAKER
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH WED WHILE
DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS. THE SAME PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS
OVER THE E BASIN HAVE DIMINISHED TO MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA, AS WELL AS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 11N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
THE BASIN OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE BORDER
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-76W.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE WATERS
WITHIN 600-720 NM NORTHWEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHERE SEAS ARE
5 TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS, ALONG WITH MAINLY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
LEWITSKY
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