160
AXNT20 KNHC 060459
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE POSITION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 31W, SOUTH OF 19N, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY,
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROPICAL WAVES DIAGNOSTICS DATA. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 24W AND 37W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANGE IN 7 DAYS.
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER, THE WAVE IS MOST ACTIVE IN THE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE, PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N30W AND
THEN TO 08N51W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N51W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 24W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 37W AND
57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS RACING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 30 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. MARINERS IN THE AREA
SHOULD USE CAUTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ, AND OFF NW CUBA.
THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 24N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH WED WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E
WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE
DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 80W, DUE TO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MEANWHILE, SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF
THE BASIN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND OF NW COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST ENTERED THE E PACIFIC WATERS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE BASIN, LEAVING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE, AND STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A
ROBUST 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 36N39W. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N AND
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. HOWEVER, LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE EVIDENT OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST
OF 60W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 45W. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
DELGADO
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