302
AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 01N TO
19N WITH AXIS NEAR 34W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N22W, THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD TO 13N30W, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO
06.5N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN
THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND 25W, AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
46W AND 52W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF 12N AND W OF 78W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE FAR SW GULF NEAR
VERACRUZ, DRIVEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE N GULF
GENERALLY ACROSS AREAS N OF 27N, ENHANCED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF IS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS IN THE SW BASIN,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS SEEING GENTLE
TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH TODAY WHILE
DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN, FUELED BY A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE COLOMBIA LOW IS DRIVING FRESH
TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SW
CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE NW
COLOMBIA, AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRESH WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, LEAVING GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLANTIC; ONE
RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR
26.5N72W, AND THE OTHER FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
NEAR 31N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN
150 NM OF THE BAHAMAS TROUGH, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SECOND TROUGH S OF
23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE STEMMING FROM THE 1028 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N43W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO
NE WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 23N AND W OF 40W, AND ALSO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 40W. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY
5-8 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED FROM A SURFACE TROUGH, SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW INITIALLY DRIFTS WESTWARD BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM,
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA, WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS
PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
ADAMS
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