750
AXNT20 KNHC 062239
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34W, FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD SLOWLY AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR THE BORDER OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL AT 16.5N16.5W,
THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH 13N24W TO 09N40W, THEN NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR SURINAME AT 07N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 30W,
AND FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 41W AND 59W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COAST AT 10.5N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN 09.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND
84W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SW GULF NEAR
VERACRUZ, DRIVEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE AND NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL
STORM IVO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN, PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING
FROM GENERALLY 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. A PESKY STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS FROM NEAR THE SE GEORGIA COAST AT THE BORDER OF
FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N88W. MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHILE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE SW
GULF WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS, AND 1 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 18N, AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR WINDS ARE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN THE S-CENTRAL
WATERS, 2 TO 4 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LEE OF CUBA, AND 3
TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUN. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
PULSING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON A
WAVE NEAR 34W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION POTENTIAL.
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLANTIC; ONE
RUNS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 28N73W, AND
THE OTHER FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 31N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE BAHAMAS TROUGH, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SECOND TROUGH S OF
23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE STEMMING FROM THE 1027 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35.5N40.5W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 41W TO THE NORTH OF 07N, ALONG WITH 7 TO 10
FT SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN
THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES ARE WEST OF THERE TO A LINE GENERALLY FROM 31N47W TO
THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS INCLUDING IN THE AREA
OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR AFRICA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, INCLUDING THE SW N ATLANTIC
ZONES, ALONG WITH 3 TO LOCALLY 5 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
NOW ONLY APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, REMAINING
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA, WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS
PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD, A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON.
LEWITSKY
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