268
AXNT20 KNHC 071040
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 03N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 14N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N26W AND
TO 14N33W TO 09N47W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N57W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE, AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF AT 29N87W. THE
RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 23N AND WEST OF
89W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 25N83W.
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO INLAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE
OVER SOME AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF, WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WHILE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, INCLUDING
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 20N, AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
MODERATE RANGE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
THROUGH SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARD. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRADES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF FRESH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
26N68.5W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH
OF THE AREA AT 35N39W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N65W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 60W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE BETWEEN 40W AND 60W AND NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 20N AND
EAST OF 22W. AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS
CAPTURED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA, WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS, THAT ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
BAHAMAS AND WESTWARD FROM THERE TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AGUIRRE
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