547
AXNT20 KNHC 071753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 03N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N24W, THEN
WESTWARD TO 15N34W, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N45W. THE ITCZ IS
THEN ANALYZED FROM 07N45W TO NEAR 06N58W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 27W, AND ALSO FROM 00N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND
62W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN GENERALLY S OF 12N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE NE GULF COAST ARE LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN N OF 23N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE SW GULF AHEAD OF A
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW GULF MAINTAINS GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THEN
SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EVENINGS AND AT
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 20N. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
THROUGH SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARD. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRADES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF FRESH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OR THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ. RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC.
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS FROM
10N TO 20N AND W OF 50W, AND ALSO IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINING ATLANTIC E OF 45W, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 45W AND N OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA, WILL SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH PULSING
WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ADAMS
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