970
AXNT20 KNHC 072138
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 150 NM IN THE W QUADRANT OF A 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N36.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IN A
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER
TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO THE 1011 MB LOW DISCUSSES ABOVE NEAR
16N36.5W TO 10N47W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 10N47W TO NEAR THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 10N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 13.5N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 30W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COSTA RICA TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 09.5N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 09N TO 12.5N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE NE GULF COAST ARE LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE SW GULF
AHEAD OF A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SEEN IN THE SE GULF
AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AS WELL AS
OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, 1022
MB WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW GULF MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THEN
SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EVENINGS AND AT
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN,
OTHER THAN AN AREA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUSTAINS
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT, WITH SOME SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT NEAR
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
THROUGH SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARD. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRADES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE-
LIKE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING
WINDS OF FRESH SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN OVER THE SE BAHAMAS WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY. YET ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N59W TO
25.5N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN
58W AND 61W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND NEAR AND NORTH OF A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA AT 16N36.5W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE, GENERALLY FROM
14N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FOUND
FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24W. SIMILAR WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, INCLUDING THE SW N ATLANTIC OFFSHORE ZONES
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT EAST OF A LINE
FROM 31N49W TO NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE, AND 3-4 FT WEST OF THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAY APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM (INVEST
AL96) HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS, AND A LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
LEWITSKY
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