171
AXNT20 KNHC 080541
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N37W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN WEST OF THE LOW
PRES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE IN A FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N24W AND
TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N37W AND THEN TO 09N50W. THE ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 09N50W TO NEAR 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING LANDMASSES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
WATERS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULT IN MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THEN SHIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 20N, AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
FORCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
INTO SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED . ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADES MAY
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE-
LIKE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING
WINDS OF FRESH SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WEST OF 70W AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ALSO AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST, A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT SE OF BERMUDA DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 35N35W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY NE-E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 15N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 20N. AN SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE PASSAGES BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAY APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM...INVEST
AL96...HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS, AND A LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
DELGADO
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