918
AXNT20 KNHC 081012
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WNW AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N38W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE OR LOW PRESSURE AND THUS, DESPITE SOME
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS E OF THE WAVE, DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE LOW MOVES WNW TO NW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N27W TO
THE 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N38W AND THEN TO 09N49W. THE ITCZ IS
ANALYZED FROM 09N49W TO NEAR 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF A LINE FROM
APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE NW BASIN DOMINATES. MAINLY GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF, WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE
EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK TROUGH MAINLY N OF THE REGION IS LEADING TO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVERGENT
TRADEWINDS HAVE ALSO CAUSED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SE CARIBBEAN, ABOUT 150 NM
OFFSHORE VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE WEST. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN THE EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND SW CARIBBEAN, WITH 2 TO
4 FT SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA INTO SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRADES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF FRESH
SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE LEADING TO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 200 NM OF
FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH,
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT, IS LEADING TO A 90 NM BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 39N61W. THE
OTHER CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH, BOTH DESCRIBED IN THE NAMED SECTIONS
ABOVE.
MOST OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE,
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB CENTER AT 35N35W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WSW TO A 1019 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA. THIS LEAVES THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, BUT S OF THE
STRONGER HIGH, N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 25N, FRESH NE
WINDS PREVAIL E OF 45W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ALSO ARE
IMPACTING WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ABOUT 50W. SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS WHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH
THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON AND THIS LOW MAY ORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...AL96...FORMING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
KONARIK
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