114
AXNT20 KNHC 081621
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF 24N,
MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. 1013 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 18N40W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OR LOW PRESSURE AT THIS TIME. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO
SURROUNDING DRY AIR, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW (NEAR ZERO) CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N39W. THE
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 12N45W TO NEAR 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST OF 20W AND FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A STALLED FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED AT 1500 UTC. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE
EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS,
WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA, THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER INDICATES PULSING FRESH
WINDS WITH LOCALLY 6 FT SEAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO SAT, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TRADES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF
FRESH SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N79W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS, FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THIS INCLUDES THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N68W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS IN OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH
THE EASTERN WATERS SUN INTO MON AND THIS LOW MAY ORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE (AL96) FORMING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MAHONEY
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