394
AXNT20 KNHC 090520
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT AUG 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0520 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA WITH IS AXIS ALONG 16W, SOUTH OF 16N. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 01N TO 15N AND WEST OF 20W. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42.8W, SOUTH OF 26N,
MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 18.9N42.8W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO
SURROUNDING DRY AIR, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW (NEAR ZERO) CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER
TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05.5N38W. NO ITCZ HAS BEEN DEPICTED AT
THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 03.5N TO 09N AND EAST OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE TROUGH AND EAST OF
86W, FROM CUBA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS WITH
CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS MAY PULSE WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NIGHTLY STARTING MON NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN THE EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE NW BASIN
BETWEEN JAMAICA, CUBA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FAIR WEATHER
OTHERWISE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH SAT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, A
PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
STARTING TUE. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF FRESH
SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N80W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS ADJACENT WATERS,
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 72.5W AND 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS IN OPEN
WATERS.
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 19N TO 26W, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FT. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N37.5W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 17N AND EAST OF 30W TO THE COAST OF MORROCCO. SEAS ARE 6
TO 9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
PULSING WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA. LOW PRESSURE...AL96...IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE EASTERN WATERS LATE SUN INTO MON. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO DUE TO SURROUNDING DRY AIR, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A FEW DAYS. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. CURRENTLY, THERE
IS A MEDIUM RANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
KRV
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