804
AXNT20 KNHC 091015
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT AUG 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 18W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 15N E
OF 20W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES WNW AT AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 46W, FROM 09N
TO 23N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
NEAR 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS LOW FROM 19N
TO 24N BETWEEN 44W TO 47W. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR
SURROUNDING IT, SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NW TO N
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05.5N38W. THE ITCZ IS LOCATED FROM
14N48W TO 11N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS
MORNING FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 27N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES N OF THE TROUGH OFFSHORE
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF IS DOMINATING THE BASIN,
LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE NIGHTLY STARTING MON NIGHT
W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DIURNAL TROUGH MOVES W OFFSHORE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY IN THE NW BASIN DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH FAIR WEATHER NOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE BASIN AND
TRADEWINDS DOMINATING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ARE ONGOING IN
THE CENTRAL BASIN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS IN THE
EASTERN AND SW BASIN. IN THE NW BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS
ARE PRESENT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA MAINLY TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, A PASSING TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CAUSE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AGAIN STARTING TUE. IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, PULSING WINDS OF FRESH SPEEDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W,
IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N56W TO 25N61W IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE BASIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH,
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE.
W OF 50W, GENTLE E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE. TO THE E, FOR
WATERS S OF 15N, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
DOMINATE, WHILE N OF 15N, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT DOMINATE. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOTED IN A
CORRIDOR FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 18W AND 34W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LOW PRESSURE...AL96...CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NW AND MAY IMPACT THE FAR NE WATERS DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES NW OR N DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUN, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH PULSING WINDS NEAR
HISPANIOLA.
KONARIK
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