862
AXNT20 KNHC 091715
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT AUG 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 18W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N E
OF 25W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 47W, FROM 09N
TO 23N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
NEAR 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS LOW FROM 19N
TO 24N BETWEEN 44W TO 47W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO SURROUNDING DRY AIR, BUT SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO
11N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 27N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N AND E OF 87W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT N OF THE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.
SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO MON ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE
NIGHTLY STARTING MON NIGHT W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DIURNAL
TROUGH MOVES W OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ARE ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL BASIN,
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SW BASIN. IN
THE NW BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS ARE PRESENT. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE
SW PORTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY AT NIGHT, WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BY LATE WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
WILL PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED TOO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 75W,
IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 27N61W IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE BASIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH,
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE. W OF 50W, GENTLE E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE. TO THE E, FOR WATERS S OF 15N, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE, WHILE N OF 15N, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE. THE HIGHEST SEAS
ARE NOTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 18W AND 34W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUE, BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MARINE WEATHER WEST OF 55W THROUGH MID WEEK.
A MOSTLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TUE, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING E
SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ADVANCE OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ERA
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