690
AXNT20 KNHC 092300
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18W...AL97...EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND IS MOVING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 16.5N E OF 24W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 48W, FROM 09N
TO 25N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
NEAR 21N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS LOW FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W TO 50.5W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, DUE TO SURROUNDING
DRY AIR, BUT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20.5N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09.5N30W TO 09N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 11.5N52W TO 10.5N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W, AND FROM 07N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TO
NEAR 27N87W. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF EAST OF THIS TROUGH, LEADING TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 23N AND E OF 86W.
SIMILAR STRONG CONVECTION IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF, NORTH OF THE TROUGH, WHERE SEAS
ARE 3 TO 4 FT. VARIABLE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO MON, SOUTH OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE
WINDS MAY PULSE MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA, EXTENDING A RIDGE TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE IS YIELDING ONGOING MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL BASIN EAST OF 80W, WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE EAST WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SW BASIN. IN THE NW
BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS ARE PRESENT. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 7 FT OFFSHORE
OF NW COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS SW PORTIONS, FROM 10N TO 16N WEST OF 79W TO THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
THIS AREA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, STRONGEST AT NIGHT. IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE MAINLY AT
NIGHT SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 75W IS LEADING TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 75W, IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE
GEORGIA, FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA. W OF 50W, A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS, WITH GENTLE E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS 4 FT OR LESS DOMINATING. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 28N FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
48W. TO THE E OF THIS AREA, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
33N42W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8
FT DOMINATE THE AREA FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE. S OF 15N, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF OF WESTERN AFRICA IS
YIELDING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN
THE MONSOON TROUGH, MORROCCO AND 40W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N48W WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUE, BUT
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MARINE WEATHER WEST OF 55W THROUGH MID
WEEK. A MOSTLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUE, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH
WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. LOOKING AHEAD,
BUILDING E SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE WED IN ADVANCE OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
STRIPLING
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