497
AXNT20 KNHC 100401
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18.9W, EXTENDS FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD, AND IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...AL97...IS NOTED NEAR 11.2N18.9W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 18N E
OF 23.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE HAS
A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 49.5W, FROM
07N TO 22N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
NEAR 21.6N49.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS LOW
FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W TO 51W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SURROUNDING
DRY AIR, BUT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 11.2N18.9W TO 08.5N39W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N50.5W TO 12.5N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 23.5W
AND 37W, AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TO
NEAR 26N87W. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF EAST OF THIS TROUGH, LEADING TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 23N AND E OF 86W.
SIMILAR STRONG CONVECTION IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE N GULF, NORTH OF THE TROUGH, WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT.
VARIABLE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO MON SOUTH OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE MON NIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC, EXTENDING A RIDGE
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE IS
YIELDING ONGOING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL BASIN
EAST OF 80W, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS IN THE EASTERN
AND SW BASIN. IN THE NW BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS ARE
PRESENT. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH
HIGHEST SEAS TO 7 FT OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS SW PORTIONS, FROM 10N TO 15N WEST OF
76W IN ASSOCIATION TO THE EASTERN END OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA IN MID WEEK, MAINLY AT NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY STARTING WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE MAINLY AT
NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77.5W, IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA,
FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WEST OF 55W, A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILS, WITH GENTLE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS 5 FT OR LESS
DOMINATING. TO THE E OF THIS AREA, 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N41W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W
AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE. S OF 20N, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF OF WESTERN AFRICA IS YIELDING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH, MORROCCO AND 40W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEARBY WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE...AL96...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR 22N50W
WILL MOVE GENERALLY N THROUGH TUE, HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
MARINE WEATHER WEST OF 55W. A MOSTLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN JUST N OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, BUILDING E
SWELL WILL ENTER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
LATE WED IN ADVANCE OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
KRV
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