261
AXNT20 KNHC 101030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W, SOUTHWARD FROM
16N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE...AL97...
IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS ARE IMPACTING WATERS S AND E OF THE WAVE, AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE
MIDDLE OF LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10 TO 15
KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLY TODAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 51W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 22N, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...IS BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THIS WAVE AS IT IS
BEING PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE WAVE.
THE LOW CENTER IS AROUND 23N50W THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 52W. SOME FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED N AND E
OF THE LOW AS WELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD, WITH NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS DUE TO DRY AIR SURROUNDING IT. HOWEVER, SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 13N20W TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08.5N50.5W TO 12.5N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W,
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
ABOUT 100 NM IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OFFSHORE FLORIDA. CONVECTION OFFSHORE CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING FROM A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF IS LEADING TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE FLORIDA INTO MON.
ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING IS LEADING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND REGIME OVER
MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST BASIN, AND SOME LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
CUBA AND SOUTH OF 10N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. CONVECTION THAT HAD
BEEN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE
MAINLY 3 TO 5 TO FT, WITH SOME 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SW BASIN, SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA INTO MID WEEK, MAINLY AT NIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT INTO
THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST. A
PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS S AND E OF THE BAHAMAS IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. W OF
55W, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE. TO THE
EAST, FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEARBY WATERS INTO
MON. A MOSTLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE
REGION BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW THIS WEEK AND MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF
AREA WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY MID TO LATE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMATION,
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO ENTER
AREA WATERS BY LATE WED.
KONARIK
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