936
AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
INVEST AL97: AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG
20W FROM 02-18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 05-16N BETWEEN 18-29W. RECENTLY
RECEIVED SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 KT/35 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL LACKS SOME ORGANIZATION, ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DOES NOT FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK
WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
INVEST AL97, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ON HURRICANES.GOV.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 53W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 22N, MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...HAS SEPARATED FROM THIS WAVE AS IT IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE WAVE. THE
LOW CENTER IS AROUND 23.5N52W THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 23-27N BETWEEN 48-51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 5-7 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED N AND E OF THE LOW AS WELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW THIS WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 14N20W TO 05N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N45W TO 04.5N59.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 05-09N BETWEEN 31-43W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN GENERALLY S OF 14N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
ABOUT 100 NM IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG MUCH OF THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 86W BETWEEN 24-27N. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN IS LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST OFFSHORE FLORIDA INTO MON. ELSEWHERE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH
NE WINDS MAY PULSE MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IN THE BASIN
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIA
LOW IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE
CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 3-6
FT PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-5 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA INTO MID WEEK, MAINLY AT NIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THE REGION. IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT INTO
THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS S AND E OF BERMUDA ARE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN
60-68W. W OF 55W, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT DOMINATE. TO THE EAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT GENERALLY PREVAIL. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND
ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 7-10 FT FROM 12-27N BETWEEN 25-42W. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AL97 IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF 10N AND E OF 35W. WINDS S OF 10N AND W OF 35W ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEARBY WATERS INTO
MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW THIS WEEK AND MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF AREA
WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY MID TO LATE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMATION,
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO ENTER
AREA WATERS BY LATE WED.
ADAMS
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