801
AXNT20 KNHC 102309
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
INVEST AL97: AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG
21W-22W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N22W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE LOW CENTER, FROM
15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 18W AND
29W. MORNING SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS
OF ABOUT 30 KT/35 MPH WITH THE LOW CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST AL97, PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON HURRICANES.GOV.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 56W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 21N, MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AL96...HAS SEPARATED FROM THIS WAVE AS IT IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE WAVE. THE
LOW CENTER IS AROUND 25N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. SOME FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED N AND E OF THE LOW AS WELL. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW THIS
WEEK. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, WITH SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20.5N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 16N22W TO 06.5N44W TO 06N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N-09N BETWEEN 31W AND 48W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10.5N011N AND INTO NW COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
GENERALLY S OF 13N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND W-SW ABOUT
28.5N-29N TO 28N92W, AND IS PROMOTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W,
FROM THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND EXTENDS
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA, AND NE TO E WINDS 10
TO 15 KT AND SEAS TO 3 FT PREVAIL NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND EAST OF
SE LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS SHIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE BASIN, AND IS LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS WEST OF 87W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO MON.
ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT MON THROUGH WED
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN, SOUTH OF 14.5N AND
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NW BASIN, NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 82W, AND
SPREADING ACROSS NW CUBA AND INTO THE SE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIA LOW IS DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN, BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST
OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA INTO MID WEEK, STRONGEST AT
NIGHT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING WED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THE REGION.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THEREAFTER
MAINLY AT NIGHT INTO THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS S AND E OF BERMUDA ARE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44 AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE W-SW TO
THE TROUGH ALONG 63W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PAIR OF TROUGHS AND INTO FLORIDA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 3 TO 5 FT. AL96 IS NEAR 25N52W, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO THE NE AND AL96 IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
EAST OF THIS AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AREA PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM SW OF THE AZORES
ALONG 23W TO 50W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN AFRICA AND
35W, WITH SEA OF 7 TO 11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR
A TROUGH OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS, SOUTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN GEORGIA AND BERMUDA. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MOSTLY SLIGHT
SEAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AL97...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-NW THIS WEEK AND MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF AREA WATERS NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMATION, INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM
THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO ENTER AREA WATERS BY LATE WED.
STRIPLING
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