570
AXNT20 KNHC 110458
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0458 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
INVEST AL97: A WELL DEFINED 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR
16.5N23.4W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED FROM 15N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W, WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND
27W. LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA 11/00Z INDICATED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT/35 MPH WITH THE LOW CENTER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT, AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST AL97,
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON
HURRICANES.GOV.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 57W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 22N, MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 201N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 16.5N23.4W TO 10N35W TO 06N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N83.5W AND INTO NW COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
GENERALLY S OF 13N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND W-SW ABOUT
28.5N85W TO 28N90W, AND IS PROMOTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF
88W, FROM THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND
EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE BIG BEND
AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
FLORIDA, AND NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS TO 2 FT PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN, AND IS LEADING TO GENTLE
WINDS WEST OF 88W, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH MAY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF INTO LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE AT NIGHT MON
INTO WED WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN, NORTH OF 17N AND
WEST OF 76W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIA LOW IS DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SW
CARIBBEAN, BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 17N. FRESH E WINDS AND
SEAS TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS. EXPECT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING
NIGHTLY THEREAFTER INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE MIDDLE OR LATER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY
IMPACT ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS S AND E OF BERMUDA ARE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 59.5W AND 68W. AN 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42.5W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAIL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PAIR OF TROUGHS AND INTO
FLORIDA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL96). SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 49.5W AND
53W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE PART
OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS LOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NE AND AL96 IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ALONG THE
TROUGH. EAST OF THIS AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AREA PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM SW OF THE
AZORES ALONG 23W TO 50W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W, WITH SEA OF 7 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS, SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN GEORGIA AND BERMUDA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WNW THIS WEEK AND IS LIKELY TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF AREA
WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FROM BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. AL WAVE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY FORM BY MID TO LATE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL FORMATION,
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO ENTER
AREA WATERS BY WED NIGHT.
KRV
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