470
AXNT20 KNHC 111030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
INVEST AL97: A WELL DEFINED 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION NEAR THE NW CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AROUND 17N26W. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND INTERESTS THERE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR LATER
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK
WHILE MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST AL97, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON HURRICANES.GOV.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 59W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 22N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO AL97 NEAR 17N26W TO 10N35W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 29W TO 52W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N AND INTO NW COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
GENERALLY S OF 13N AND W OF 76W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WSW TO OFFSHORE
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF
88W. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE, WITH THE BASIN BEING
DOMINATED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF. MODERATE
SE WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS, AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE 2 FT
OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH MAY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE AT NIGHT INTO WED WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGING TRADEWINDS ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 19N IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS THAT BEING INDUCED BY THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE SECTION. FRESH TRADES
DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WITH MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN,
EXTENDING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE
NIGHTS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING
NIGHTLY THEREAFTER THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE MIDDLE OR LATER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY IMPACT ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON INVEST 97L,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS WEEK IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH (AL96) IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROUGH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE,
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH S OF
BERMUDA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR WATERS W OF 50W, MODERATE OR WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL,
EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA, WHERE FRESH WINDS ARE ONGOING. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 3 TO 5 FT. TO THE E OF 50W, AS WELL AS FOR WATERS E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, WITH 5 TO 8
FT SEAS. AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE TO E SWELL IS
ENCOMPASSING A ZONE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EAST ATLANTIC, A BROAD FETCH OF SW WINDS IS
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS FOR WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 10N35W TO
18N18W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WILL TRANSLATE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY
SLIGHT SEAS INTO MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD,
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS WILL MOVE WNW THIS WEEK AND IS LIKELY TO APPROACH
PORTIONS OF AREA WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FROM BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO ENTER PORTIONS AREA WATERS STARTING
THU.
KONARIK
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