854
AXNT20 KNHC 111758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN: AS OF 11/1500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS
CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W, OR 240 NM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 17 KT, AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF ERIN,
GENERALLY FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. SEAS OF UP TO 4
METERS/12 FEET EXTEND OUT 30 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF ERIN. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERIN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 62W, SOUTHWARD
FROM 22N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 17N27W TO 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W
AND 56W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N AND INTO NW COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
GENERALLY S OF 15N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE ROCKPORT, TX. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ARE FUELING
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN
83W AND 89W AND N OF 24N, WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF, NEAR THE NORTH END OF A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF IS LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH MAY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE AT NIGHT INTO WED WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS THAT BEING
INDUCED BY THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SW BASIN, WITH MAINLY MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
TO SW BASIN, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO
PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT, WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS PULSING NIGHTLY THEREAFTER THROUGH THU. NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11 AM EDT, AND
IS MOVING WEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. ERIN
WILL MOVE TO 17.5N 31.2W THIS EVENING, 17.4N 35.1W TUE MORNING,
17.1N 38.7W TUE EVENING, 17.1N 41.7W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N 45.0W WED EVENING, AND 18.0N 48.4W THU
MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
19.6N 54.0W EARLY FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ERIN, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH (AL96) IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING UNLIKELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 31N63W AND EXTENDS TO 30N65W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
28N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALL OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION
IN THE BASIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN OR THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 25W AND 50W AND AWAY FROM TROPICAL
STORM ERIN. MODERATE OR WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC W OF 50W, EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE ONGOING. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT PREVAIL E OF 40W,
WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT TO THE WEST OF
40W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH, PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO
MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIN
IS NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 17 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.5N 31.2W
THIS EVENING, 17.4N 35.1W TUE MORNING, 17.1N 38.7W TUE EVENING,
17.1N 41.7W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N
45.0W WED EVENING, AND 18.0N 48.4W THU MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.6N 54.0W EARLY FRI.
ADAMS
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