357
AXNT20 KNHC 112319
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 30.3W AT 11/2100 UTC OR 370 NM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 18 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IN
FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
ERIN COULD BE AT HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FEET EXTEND OUT WITHIN 45 NM NE AND 30
NM NW QUADRANTS OF ERIN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF ERIN.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS, IF ANY, ERIN MAY
BRING TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, BERMUDA, OR THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. AS WE APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON, IT IS AN OPPORTUNE TIME TO ENSURE YOUR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS ARE IN PLACE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
OF NOTE: TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMED THIS MORNING JUST WEST OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY SAT. CABO VERDE-TYPE HURRICANES ARE THOSE ATLANTIC
BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORMS FAIRLY
CLOSE (< 1000 KM [600 MI] OR SO) OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND
THEM BECOME HURRICANES BEFORE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
TYPICALLY, THIS CAN OCCUR IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. THE NUMBERS
RANGE FROM NONE UP TO AROUND FIVE PER YEAR, WITH AN AVERAGE
AROUND TWO.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH AXIS ALONG
63W, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE APPEARS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NE VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 13N30W TO 10N40W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
NEAR 06N58W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 17N E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND THE
GAMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING
FROM 06N TO 10W OF 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH-
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE
MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL WATERS, PARTICULARLY N OF 23N BETWEEN
87W AND 91W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE STRONG TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, WITH HIGHER SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
AND HIGHER SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE AT NIGHT INTO WED WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A DAILY TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATION OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 82W.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP OVER MOST OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO
PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PULSING NIGHTLY THEREAFTER THROUGH THU.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 33.4W TUE MORNING, 17.3N
37.1W TUE AFTERNOON, 17.1N 40.5W WED MORNING, 17.3N 44.0W WED
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 47.0W THU
MORNING, AND 18.5N 50.0W THU AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 55.6W FRI AFTERNOON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ERIN, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE (AL96) LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
PRODUCING SCATTERED DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD,
REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS AND AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W, AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W
AND 47W. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER
DATA. MODERATE OR WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC W OF 50W, EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS
AND OFFSHORE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS INTO
MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING. TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE
TO 17.4N 33.4W TUE MORNING, 17.3N 37.1W TUE AFTERNOON, 17.1N
40.5W WED MORNING, 17.3N 44.0W WED AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 47.0W THU MORNING, AND 18.5N 50.0W THU
AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 20.0N 55.6W FRI AFTERNOON.
GR
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