839
AXNT20 KNHC 120509
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300 UTC
OR 490 NM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ERIN IS A COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTED STRONG CONVECTION
PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD SPEED. SEAS TO 4 METERS / 12
FEET EXTEND 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W, SOUTH OF 21N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, SOME FAST-MOVING SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N27W, AND
THEN FROM 12N34W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 18N AND EAST OF 22N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 85W TO 93W.
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA IS PROPAGATING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FOUND IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DOMINATES THE BASIN RESULTS IN MODERATE OR WEAKER SOUTHERLY WINDS
NORTH OF 23N AND EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 23N. SLIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE BEFORE
MOVING INLAND. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
AND HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT AS A DIURNAL TROUGH
MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 80W RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF 77W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO FORCE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO FOUND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
SEAS IN THE AREAS DESCRIBED ARE MODERATE. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 11 PM
EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 35.2W TUE MORNING, 17.2N 38.8W TUE
EVENING, AND 17.1N 42.2W WED MORNING. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N 45.4W WED EVENING, MOVE TO 18.0N 48.4W THU
MORNING, AND 18.7N 51.3W THU EVENING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
FRI. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS
JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHTS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
ERIN, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS NORTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN 60W AND 75W
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 23N AND
WEST OF 60W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE WEST OF
60W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES ARCHIPELAGO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN EAST OF 50W AND NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 40W.
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.6N
32.3W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 35.2W TUE
MORNING, 17.2N 38.8W TUE EVENING, AND 17.1N 42.2W WED MORNING.
ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N 45.4W WED EVENING,
MOVE TO 18.0N 48.4W THU MORNING, AND 18.7N 51.3W THU EVENING. ERIN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS
INTO MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING.
DELGADO
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