539
AXNT20 KNHC 121015
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900 UTC
OR 600 NM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS TO 4 METERS / 12
FEET EXTEND 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT.
ERIN HAS A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ERIN
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING, AND OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. HOWEVER, LOW SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT STRENGTHENING, AND ERIN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK. ERIN IS MOVING QUICKLY
WEST, BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED HAVING EXITED THE AFRICAN
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THIS EASTERN ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W, FROM 20W SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14N E
OF 20W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W, FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER, SOME FAST-
MOVING SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N27W,
THEN RESTARTS FROM 12N34W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 27W AND
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE LOUISIANA IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT DOMINATES THE BASIN RESULTS IN MODERATE OR WEAKER MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE
MOVING INLAND. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,
AND HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE IN
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG 81W IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 78W AND 83W FROM CUBA TO PANAMA, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS, WHERE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. ELSEWHERE, THE EASTERN EXTENSION
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10W IS INDUCING MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SW BASIN, ALONG WITH 5
TO 8 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE, WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT,
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FEATURES HAVE
WEAKENED, LEAVING THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BASIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN, THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND A TROPICAL WAVE,
ALL OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE.
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WATERS N OF THE ANTILLES AND
W OF 55W AS LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 5 AM
EDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. ERIN WILL MOVE TO 17.2N 37.2W THIS AFTERNOON, 17.0N 40.5W WED
MORNING, AND 17.0N 43.6W WED AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.4N 46.8W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 18.0N 49.9W THU
AFTERNOON, AND REACH 18.7N 52.7W FRI MORNING. HURRICANE ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
THROUGH WED NIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS.
KONARIK
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