277
AXNT20 KNHC 121737
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 12/1500 UTC
OR 710 NM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 20 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. SEAS TO 4 METERS / 12 FEET EXTEND 90 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT, 45 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT, AND 30 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REACHING
50-100 NM OUT FROM THE CENTER OF ERIN, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. ERIN
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 18W, FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N AND E OF 24W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W, FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONA
PASSAGE.
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE 1200 UTC
ANALYSIS ALONG 84W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N28W, THEN
RESTARTS FROM 12N36W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W AND FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING GENERALLY SOUTH OF 12N AND W OF 77W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N90W, ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE LOUISIANA. THESE FEATURES ARE INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA, LEADING TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DOMINATES THE
BASIN RESULTS IN MODERATE OR WEAKER MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS
ARE MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HEAVY RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND HIGHER SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
ALL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W OR THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SW BASIN, ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 11 AM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.8N 39.1W THIS EVENING, 16.5N 42.3W WED
MORNING, 16.6N 45.2W WED EVENING, 17.1N 48.3W THU MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 51.3W THU EVENING, AND 18.5N
54.4W FRI MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 19.8N 60.3W EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, AND ARE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ALL OTHER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN
OR THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
WATERS N OF THE ANTILLES AND W OF 55W IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM
ERIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 11 AM EDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.8N 39.1W THIS EVENING, 16.5N 42.3W WED
MORNING, 16.6N 45.2W WED EVENING, 17.1N 48.3W THU MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.8N 51.3W THU EVENING, AND 18.5N
54.4W FRI MORNING. ERIN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 19.8N 60.3W EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT
SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING.
ADAMS
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