896
AXNT20 KNHC 122322
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
.SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 12/2100 UTC
OR 830 NM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS TO 4 METERS/12 FEET
EXTEND 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT, 30 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT, AND
15 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT OVERALL THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ERIN IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD.
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ERIN WILL
LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY. ERIN WOULD STILL
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 OR 5 DAYS. ERIN COULD MOVE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE SOME IMPACTS ON THOSE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS IS STILL NOT
KNOWN, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST ERIN
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 18W, FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, MOVING
W AT 10 TO 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 71W AND EXTENDS INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA, NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 85W AND EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION RELATED TO THE WAVE IS
AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 10N43W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N59W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, AND
ALABAMA IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR
SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, PARTICULARLY N OF 24N BETWEEN
88W AND 94W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, E OF 84W, AND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HEAVY RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND HIGHER SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NE WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA, PLEASE,
SEE, THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATION OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE PRESENT. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE WITHIN THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PORTION
OF THE BASIN WHERE SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE EVIDENT. CONVECTION HAS
FLARED-UP OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE LATTER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF
OF AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 40.8W
WED MORNING, 16.4N 43.9W WED AFTERNOON, 16.6N 46.8W THU MORNING,
17.2N 49.9W THU AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.9N
52.9W FRI MORNING, AND 18.6N 56.0W FRI AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 61.5W SAT
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS JUST OFFSHORE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT,
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE N WATERS W OF
50W. ONE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 28N67W TO 30N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
TROUGH, MAINLY W OF 67W. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 55W LEADING TO MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHERE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE ONGOING. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH T.S. ERIN IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS N OF ERIN TO ABOUT 23N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 20N
E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THAT AREA. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE ALSO
NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 28W AND
33W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 40.8W
WED MORNING, 16.4N 43.9W WED AFTERNOON, 16.6N 46.8W THU MORNING,
17.2N 49.9W THU AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.9N
52.9W FRI MORNING, AND 18.6N 56.0W FRI AFTERNOON. ERIN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 61.5W SAT
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE
HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING.
GR
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